WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, May 7, 2014

WINNIPEG - In what has been anything but a normal year for getting everyone into normal spring market expectations and buying activity to match them, April sales actually held their own. They fell just shy of last year’s total number and are exactly at the 10-year average performance level for this month.

Owing to affordability issues that have been well identified with first time buyers, which in turn has a broader impact on other aspects of the housing market, single family homes continue to underachieve compared to more affordable property types such as condominiums and single- attached properties. Given single family homes or residential-detached units make up the majority of sales in the Winnipeg MLS® market region, converting less than 50 per cent of your inventory is going to make it difficult to see a stronger overall April MLS® sales result.

Year-to-date results mirror April in that sales are in lockstep with last year...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, April 9, 2014

Winnipeg - 2014 is showing continued improvement in MLS® listings and overall inventory. Both new listings in March and active listings or overall inventory at the end of the month were well up over last year. Buyers have far more to choose from when you look at all residential property types. Going into April last year there were over 2,000 residential listings whereas now there are in excess of 2,500. Condominiums show the largest increase with 562 available for sale this year compared to 346 in 2013. The only residential property types down from last year are duplexes and resort properties.

MLS® sales for March rebounded from a poor March 2013 with year-to-date sales slightly ahead of last year for the first three months. If you compare them to the 10-year average sales performance they are off 3 and 7% respectively. However we must keep in mind Winnipeg endured it coldest winter since 1898.

March MLS® unit sales were up 9%...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, March 5, 2014

WINNIPEG - Whether it be Olympic fever or just plain deep freeze weather that kept buyers at home, the February MLS® results show strong listing activity but less motivation by buyers to get out and take advantage of the good supply and selection of listings. Sales were affected in one way or another and are down 8% from the 10-year average of 743 sales. Property types most negatively impacted this month were vacant lots and duplexes as residential-detached and condominiums, in particular, saw increases over last February.

As a result of more listings coming on the market with less of them being converted to sales than last year at this time, Winnipeg’s MLS® market has moved into balanced conditions. Buyers are now in a more favourable position to get what they want and have more time to do it. The number of residential-detached listings selling for above list price in February was just over 30 per cent, down five percentage...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, February 5, 2014

WINNIPEG - Weather deterred more buyers than sellers when it came to single family home sales this January as they were down 10 % from January 2013. However the 565 MLS® sales transacted are better than the 10-year average of 550 and are right at home with most recent January performances other than 2013 when there were more than 600 sales.

MLS® new listings continue to show strength in 2014 with a 7% increase over 2013 and a higher percentage increase relative to previous years for January. Condominium sales activity was not affected by some harsh winter weather in January as saw an impressive 36% jump from January 2013. They clearly helped offset the sales decreases in other MLS® property types.

January MLS® unit sales were down 8% (565/614) while dollar volume decreased less than 1% ($146.0 million/$146.9 million) in comparison to the same month last year.

“Given some rather harsh weather and road conditions at...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, January 9, 2014

WINNIPEG - While 2013 will go down in WinnipegREALTORS® MLS® sales history as the fourth best year on record at 12,926 sales, it is still disappointing to see sales miss the 13,000 benchmark level set in 2007 and then again in 2011 and 2012.

A third consecutive year of 13,000 MLS® sales was attainable however March proved to be the year’s Achilles heel. What was so demonstrably clear is how much more the first-time homebuyer market struggled that month in comparison to the move-up market. With a more robust first-time homebuyer market in March, 74 sales could easily have been achieved to reach once again the annual 13,000 MLS® sales level.

It was noted back then the drop off in buyer activity was three times greater in the lower first-time homebuyer price ranges than in the higher move-up ones. At the same time WinnipegREALTORS® received a very conclusive response from its REALTOR® members indicating how they...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, December 13, 2013

WINNIPEG - The first time the Winnipeg Multiple Listing Service® did $1 billion in sales activity was 2002. Then the MLS® did $2 billion in sales in 2007. Sales broke $3 billion in 2011. In 2013 the WinnipegREALTORS® co-operative marketing system has reached $3.2 billion at the end of November!

WinnipegREALTORS® president Richard Dettman reports the dollar volume strength has benefited from 24 sales valued over $1 million so far this year - 20 residential-detached homes and four condominiums.

Although real estate values continue to increase, the market appears to be establishing some degree of balance; a shift from the sellers’ markets of the past dozen years.

“With 3,454 properties available, it’s the best November for active inventory in the last 10 years,” said Dettman. “In November alone, there were 1,247 new listings, which is also the most entered for the month in 10 years. This gives...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, November 8, 2013

WINNIPEG - With the exception of October 2007 when it was the only time MLS® sales for October eclipsed the 1,200 level, October 2013 is only five sales behind and set a new dollar volume record for this month going over $300 million for the first time. As a result, year-to-date dollar volume is on a record-setting pace at less than $50 million shy of reaching the $3 billion mark for the third year in a row. There are still two months to go. Year-to-date sales have come up substantially too from the beginning of the year (were down 13% after 3 months) to be within 1% of 2012’s MLS® sales activity.

Helping bring back MLS® sales to close in on last year’s brisk pace is the impressive month- to- month performance of condominium sales activity. They are up 15% over the same period in 2012 and in October shot up 42% over October 2012. While still just representing less than 16% of total MLS® sales in October as...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, October 8, 2013

WINNIPEG – Not to take anything away from a respectable MLS® sales performance and new MLS® dollar volume record for September, but you have to shine the light most brightly on the sharp increase in new listings. The byproduct of this surge in new offerings for buyers left an end of the month inventory far larger and healthier than it has been in years. MLS® sales were ahead of last September by 8% and 3% over the 10-year average for September MLS® sales activity. September also sets a new dollar volume record, just edging out September 2011 when there were over 1200 sales.

September MLS® results conclude a very impressive third quarter where all the additional listings were capturing buyers’ attention. Dollar volume for the third quarter alone was less than $42 million away from reaching the $1 billion mark, well ahead of previous third quarters. Sales as well top out as best ever for this three month period....

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, September 6, 2013

WINNIPEG - Not only were barbecues sizzling in August. August MLS® sales were at record levels for this month and dollar volume shattered its previous best for August by going over $300 million for the first time. The same occurrence happened in July with dollar volume easily eclipsing $300 million too. MLS® sales were also at near record levels.

And like the fish that got away, if WinnipegREALTORS® had reeled in 8 more MLS® sales in August it would have reached a new milestone level of 1,300 for this month. This also happened in 2011 and 2005 where they were 10 and 7 short respectively of reaching 1,300 MLS® sales. Whether walking, biking, gardening, golfing, at the cottage or golfing at a course near your cottage, the 1600 strong REALTOR® network reached out across the entire WinnipegREALTORS® market region to deliver the best combined summer months of market activity in the association’s 110-year...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, August 9, 2013

WINNIPEG – If July was a cup of coffee it would be brimming over the top. Dollar volume not only crashed through $300 million for the first time in July but eclipsed $350 million in sales transaction activity. Helping achieve this new benchmark for July were sales only 19 shy of the highest July sales ever. Back in July 2008 1,407 sales were recorded on WinnipegREALTORS®’ MLS®.

As a result of a sterling July MLS® performance, year-to-date dollar volume is now ahead of last year’s with both years being the first ones to reach and go over $2 billion in seven months’ time. Without listings you cannot have sales and July was exceptional in seeing more than 2,000 new listings come on the market. This level of listings is more typical of a spring month. Given how 2013 saw delayed spring market activity due to a prolonged winter we may well be in catch up mode in July.

July MLS® unit sales increased 13%...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, July 4, 2013

WINNIPEG - A solid MLS® sales performance in June finished off a strong second quarter result and brought year-to-date sales much closer to the downside risk of minus 4% factored into the annual 2013 MLS® market forecast.

No major road blocks in the way to conclude a month ranked in the second tier of Junes that edged up to the 1,500 sales level but could not go further as was the case in 2007, 2008 and 2011. Nevertheless, 2013 June sales are only off the best June ever by 5%. June dollar volume set a new June monthly record of $392 million and it helped bring year-to-date dollar volume within less than 2% of last year’s dollar volume total.

New MLS® listings rose 9% over June last year leaving an inventory going into July of close to 4,000 units for sale. You have to go back to the 90s to find this much MLS® listing supply.

“June MLS® unit sales were virtually even (1,480/1,487) while dollar volume was up...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, June 7, 2013

WINNIPEG – With April starting a recovery from a poor first quarter, May did one better by setting an all time monthly MLS® dollar volume record of $412 million. It is only the second time dollar volume for monthly sales has exceeded $400 million. May MLS® sales finished strong too! They were 5% ahead of the 10-year average and fourth best for the month of May.

Most noteworthy however are condominium sales with a 23% increase over the same month last year and a 9% improvement in the first five months of 2013 over the same period in 2012. Helping drive this upward trend in condominium sales is more existing supply and new ones coming on the market. The inventory was up 31% going into May 2013 and it maintained a 27% gain at the end of the month compared to May 2012. Affordable listings were clearly evident with 40% of all condo sales happening in the $150,000 to $199,999 price range.

Overall MLS® inventory is healthy with...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, May 9, 2013

WINNIPEG - Signs of spring while questionable at times in April brought more buyers out to take advantage of an MLS® inventory higher than it has been in many years. The equivalent of nearly 40 % of the 3,205 MLS® listings at the end of April sold and that is over 400 units more than what sold the previous month. While sales and dollar volume were down from April 2012, sales were still 2% above the 10-year average and dollar volume finished a strong second to last year’s highest April dollar volume of $337 million.

Another positive indicator was new listings coming on the market in April of nearly 2.100 are near the highest level for this time of year. Every indication in May with warmer sunny days enabling yard work to commence in customary fashion is the spring market has arrived in earnest.

It is important to note while active residential-detached listings are higher at the end of April than they were at the same time last...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, April 8, 2013

WINNIPEG - Will someone turn the pilot light back on and warm up our MLS® market?  You have to go back to the old Winnipeg Jets era when the likes of Teemu Selanne and Thomas Steen were entertaining fans at the Winnipeg Arena to find the last March where sales were lower than March 2013. It just so happened to be the 1994-1995 NHL lockout season where only 48 games were played. Sound familiar! And lack of scoring or conversions of listings to sales clearly hurt sales activity in March. To use another sports analogy, many buyers decided to sit on the sidelines and not venture out onto the field of play.

Listings were not the issue as new ones coming on the market were down less than 7% while the active inventory at the end of March remains up 4% over the same time last year. A collective buyer pause seemed to engulf the local real estate market. If it helps restore some supply-demand balance to what has been one of the tightest resale...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, March 8, 2013

WINNIPEG – Call it what you will, whether some rather harsh winter weather conditions or just softening in the local marketplace for this time of year, there was a real parallel in the drop off of new listings and sales at 12 and 11% respectively. The conversion of new or current listings to sales remained the same this February as in the past two years. So one way of interpreting what happened this year to precipitate less sales activity is there were less property owners willing to put their property on the market. At the same time, buyers at least for single family homes did not reach into the older existing inventory to any great extent to buy what was on the market. 

One area where home sales were down significantly were in the price ranges under $200,000 where the inventory was well off what existed last year at the beginning of February. They also as a property type experienced a drop in the percentage of listings being...

Decent article below about household debt in Canada.

I have highlighted comments about interest rates staying stable until 2014, as well as comments towards the end of the article regarding the long term potential of rates rising a bit and home owners planning for this eventuality.

At a recent WinnipegREALTORS® forecast breakfast the following statistics were presented:

     1)  Personal Debt per capita (2011)

• USA            $37,000

• Canada        $32,000

• Manitoba      $16,000

     2)  Mortgage Arrears - Deliquency Rate (90+ days,  2011)

• USA            3.46 %

• Canada        0.41 %

• Manitoba      0.21 %

Manitoba is fairing (behaving) much better than the rest of North America.  So, just like the weather, and the real estate market, it would appear that purchasing behavior can have local variances as well....

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, February 6, 2013

WINNIPEG -   You have to go back to 1997 to reveal an unusually exceptional January MLS® sales performance. 660 unit sales to be exact and nothing has come close ever since. Even this January at 616 is 7% off the best January in WinnipegREALTORS® 110- year history. 

More recent history shows there were a few Januarys in the early 2000s which flirted with the 600 mark level but still fell short. Whatever way you look at it, January 2013 is a great kickstart to the year with the second best unit sales on record for this month. Not surprisingly, a new monthly dollar volume record for January was set as well, given better than average sales and prices remaining firm. A real impetus behind these strong sales was an 11% increase in MLS® listings (1,164 new properties). These were a welcome addition to the existing inventory and gave buyers more options to choose from.

Condominiums sales stood out with a 26% increase...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, January 18, 2013

“Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.  

"Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attached to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible.” — Wikipedia.

WinnipegREALTORS® does have a very up-to-date MLS®, or Multiple Listing Service®, and it is not only rich in historical data and authenticity, but offers a number of solid indicators to help the 110-year-old association gauge the status of the market. 

As is the case with other real estate associations or boards across the country, WinnipegREALTORS® decided seven years ago to...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, January 11, 2013

What is in store for the local MLS® market in the New Year? 

As is so often the case, we glean information from trends that have transpired to help us determine what lies ahead. 

So what drove 2011 and was also present in 2012 that is likely to remain in place this year?  Let’s start with interest rates. With the overnight Bank of Canada rate remaining steadfast at one per cent and no one calling for much movement due to global debt issues, it should be a relatively safe bet to predict interest rates will stay historically low. As has been evident for the past few years, when a low interest rate environment has been the norm, those in a position to finance a property on such attractive terms will be back in the market in 2013.

While interest rates make housing more affordable, jobs give people the means and confidence to acquire a home. Manitoba’s employment statistics were strong at...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, January 7, 2013

WINNIPEG - 2012 has to be regarded as another exceptional year with sales only nudged out in 2007 and 2011 by the slightest of margins. Annual dollar volume resulted in moving the bar a little bit higher again and it is only the second time in WinnipegREALTORS® 109-year history where sales dollar volume has exceeded the $3 billion mark achieved in 2011. In only 5 years, the total MLS® dollar volume has increased 44%. This increase equates to nearly $1 billion.

While December MLS® sales fell short of last year’s record level for this month, the over 600 sales are still 5% above the ten-year average. There are enough of them to bring the year-end total sales to just over 13,000, a milestone level only reached twice before in 2007 and last year. Despite MLS® monthly dollar volume being well off 2011 December’s all time best; the annual dollar volume eclipsed the $3 billion record level established last year. New...