WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, March 8, 2013

WINNIPEG – Call it what you will, whether some rather harsh winter weather conditions or just softening in the local marketplace for this time of year, there was a real parallel in the drop off of new listings and sales at 12 and 11% respectively. The conversion of new or current listings to sales remained the same this February as in the past two years. So one way of interpreting what happened this year to precipitate less sales activity is there were less property owners willing to put their property on the market. At the same time, buyers at least for single family homes did not reach into the older existing inventory to any great extent to buy what was on the market. 

One area where home sales were down significantly were in the price ranges under $200,000 where the inventory was well off what existed last year at the beginning of February. They also as a property type experienced a drop in the percentage of listings being...

Decent article below about household debt in Canada.

I have highlighted comments about interest rates staying stable until 2014, as well as comments towards the end of the article regarding the long term potential of rates rising a bit and home owners planning for this eventuality.

At a recent WinnipegREALTORS® forecast breakfast the following statistics were presented:

     1)  Personal Debt per capita (2011)

• USA            $37,000

• Canada        $32,000

• Manitoba      $16,000

     2)  Mortgage Arrears - Deliquency Rate (90+ days,  2011)

• USA            3.46 %

• Canada        0.41 %

• Manitoba      0.21 %

Manitoba is fairing (behaving) much better than the rest of North America.  So, just like the weather, and the real estate market, it would appear that purchasing behavior can have local variances as well....

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, February 6, 2013

WINNIPEG -   You have to go back to 1997 to reveal an unusually exceptional January MLS® sales performance. 660 unit sales to be exact and nothing has come close ever since. Even this January at 616 is 7% off the best January in WinnipegREALTORS® 110- year history. 

More recent history shows there were a few Januarys in the early 2000s which flirted with the 600 mark level but still fell short. Whatever way you look at it, January 2013 is a great kickstart to the year with the second best unit sales on record for this month. Not surprisingly, a new monthly dollar volume record for January was set as well, given better than average sales and prices remaining firm. A real impetus behind these strong sales was an 11% increase in MLS® listings (1,164 new properties). These were a welcome addition to the existing inventory and gave buyers more options to choose from.

Condominiums sales stood out with a 26% increase...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, January 18, 2013

“Forecasting is the process of making statements about events whose actual outcomes (typically) have not yet been observed. A commonplace example might be estimation of some variable of interest at some specified future date.  

"Risk and uncertainty are central to forecasting and prediction; it is generally considered good practice to indicate the degree of uncertainty attached to forecasts. In any case, the data must be up to date in order for the forecast to be as accurate as possible.” — Wikipedia.

WinnipegREALTORS® does have a very up-to-date MLS®, or Multiple Listing Service®, and it is not only rich in historical data and authenticity, but offers a number of solid indicators to help the 110-year-old association gauge the status of the market. 

As is the case with other real estate associations or boards across the country, WinnipegREALTORS® decided seven years ago to...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, January 11, 2013

What is in store for the local MLS® market in the New Year? 

As is so often the case, we glean information from trends that have transpired to help us determine what lies ahead. 

So what drove 2011 and was also present in 2012 that is likely to remain in place this year?  Let’s start with interest rates. With the overnight Bank of Canada rate remaining steadfast at one per cent and no one calling for much movement due to global debt issues, it should be a relatively safe bet to predict interest rates will stay historically low. As has been evident for the past few years, when a low interest rate environment has been the norm, those in a position to finance a property on such attractive terms will be back in the market in 2013.

While interest rates make housing more affordable, jobs give people the means and confidence to acquire a home. Manitoba’s employment statistics were strong at...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, January 7, 2013

WINNIPEG - 2012 has to be regarded as another exceptional year with sales only nudged out in 2007 and 2011 by the slightest of margins. Annual dollar volume resulted in moving the bar a little bit higher again and it is only the second time in WinnipegREALTORS® 109-year history where sales dollar volume has exceeded the $3 billion mark achieved in 2011. In only 5 years, the total MLS® dollar volume has increased 44%. This increase equates to nearly $1 billion.

While December MLS® sales fell short of last year’s record level for this month, the over 600 sales are still 5% above the ten-year average. There are enough of them to bring the year-end total sales to just over 13,000, a milestone level only reached twice before in 2007 and last year. Despite MLS® monthly dollar volume being well off 2011 December’s all time best; the annual dollar volume eclipsed the $3 billion record level established last year. New...

Despite recent headlines of record home prices across Canada, a 2012 study by Coldwell Banker Real Estate LLC indicates there are still many affordable markets where Canadian buyers can achieve their dream of homeownership.  Coldwell Banker has issued its annual Home Listing Report (HLR) revealing several of Canada’s most affordable real estate markets. 

Affordability remains strong in many markets across the country as close to thirty Canadian markets analyzed by the report had an average home listing price of less than $300,000 for four-bedroom, two-bathroom homes.  

Winnipeg, despite steady annual price increases since the late 90's, still remains at the middle of the pack; ranked 33rd out of the 74 markets studied across Canada, as prices are listed lowest to highest. 

Full Canadian ranking can be viewed here.  (Make sure you pick "Canada" from the drop down tab)

Windsor, Ontario was Canada’s most affordable market, averaging a $170,991...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, December 6, 2012

Winnipeg - While it may be the last quarter of the year with sales activity slowing down in comparison to the spring market, it was not the case for the upper tier of the residential-detached market. Five house sales all went for above $1 million with one commanding $2 million.

It is only the second time in WinnipegREALTORS® history in which a house has sold for $2 million or more. In 2006, another stately mansion home sold for $2,025,000. Despite November MLS® sales being down slightly less than 4% from the best November ever last year, the upper end residential-detached market of $500,000 or more saw an increase of 25% . There was even one condominium sale in November for $650,000.

November 2012 MLS® sales are only second to 2011 and 2007 where sales in the high 800s are virtually identical. Interestingly enough these are the two same years 2012 is competing with for the overall best year on record for total MLS®...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, November 9, 2012.

WinnipegREALTORS® president Shirley Przybyl is confident that MLS® sales will top $3 billion for the second consecutive year and will likely establish a new dollar volume record by the end of 2012.

Dollar volume sales in October nearly reached $282, which included the sale of three $1-million-plus homes and a $925,000 condominium, resulting in a new record for the month.

“We knew coming into the second half of 2012, especially the final two months, that we were up against some absolutely terrific all-time or near-best monthly sales performances in 2011,” Przybyl said. “So it will not be easy to maintain our slim lead to the end of the year.

“On the other hand, we are confident in saying that WinnipegREALTORS® will once again hit $3 billion in sales,” she added.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reported in its recent Winnipeg Housing Market Outlook that...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; November 6, 2012

WINNIPEG - Only October 2007 surpasses this October in sales but dollar volume worth nearly $282 million, including three $1 million plus home sales and a $925,000 condominium, resulted in a new October dollar volume record. It also sets up an interesting finishing two months with a razor-thin lead in MLS® sales over 2011 and within 140 sales of the best year ever in 2007. New listings are positive with over 1,500 new properties put on the MLS® in October or 8% more than the same month last year. There are over 3,000 active MLS® properties available for purchase in November of which 1,748 are residential-detached or single family homes. Based on previous November listing entries, you can expect another 1,000 MLS® properties coming to market.

So buyers should be encouraged and also take some consolation knowing October had a two to one ratio of residential-detached sales going for below list price rather than for above...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, November 2, 2012.

Canada is not poised for an American-style real estate meltdown, according to a new report from CIBC World Markets. 

While there are a number of factors that raise concerns about Canada’s housing market, according to the report, there are fundamental differences between the Canadian and U.S. markets that should see a soft landing and no American-style meltdown for the real estate market here.

“To be sure, house prices in Canada will probably fall in the coming year or two, but any comparison to the American market of 2006 reflects deep misunderstanding of the credit landscapes of the pre-crash environment in the U.S. and today’s Canadian market,” said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

While the debt-to-income ratio in Canada just broke the American record set in 2006,  Tal said, “this ratio is more a headline grabber than a serious analytical tool. There is...

From WinnipegREALTORS® Real Estate News Publication, October 26, 2012.

Despite some earlier signals by Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney that it may be time to increase the central bank’s interest rate to curb household debt, the overnight bank rate remains unchanged at one per cent. 

The same rate has been in effect for 25 consecutive months, mirroring the rate of the 1950s, when “Uncle Louis” St. Laurent was prime minister, Vincent Massey was appointed the nation’s first Canadian-born governor-general, and the CBC opened Canada’s first TV station in Montréal.

Carney had been warning Canadians to bring down household debt to a more manageable level or he will be forced to step in and force the issue. 

According to Statistics Canada, Canadian household debt was 167 per cent of income in the second quarter, which the Bank of Canada considers to be a threat to the nation’s financial stability.

“Households need to slow...

From Winnipeg Free Press Publication, October 6, 2012.  By Todd Lewys.

Decent article commenting on the recent WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release, October 5, 2012.  Some notable exerpts below:

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s senior market analyst for Manitoba said it's premature to conclude a correction is underway when the market fundamentals remain so strong.

Dianne Himbeault said when the federal government tightened mortgage lending guidelines in 2009 and in 2010, MLS sales declined for several months and then rebounded because demand for homes remained strong.

"So we could be seeing that again," she said,.

Przybyl said it's also noteworthy that 34 per cent of the detached homes that changed hands last month sold for more than the listed price. That's down only three per cent from September last year, and 2011 was the second best year on record for MLS sales in Winnipeg.

"That tells me we still have demand from buyers."

True, September unit sales were down,...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; October 5, 2012

WINNIPEG – After a roller coaster summer where inventory of available listings was up all three months over last year; new listings entered was up 2 out of 3 months, sales were down all three months; and dollar volume was up all three months – September started to show what other markets across the country have been reporting most of the year.

The number of listings available for sale in September – our inventory - was up 3.5% over the same month last year (3,396 vs. 3,280).

The number of new listings added to the inventory in September was down 3% (1,686 vs. 1742 last year); the number of sales recorded was down 14% (1,040 vs. 1,214); and that drop in sales created a decrease in dollar volume through theMLS® by 10% ($251 million vs. $278 million in September of 2011).

Days-on-market was even off a day for residential detached. This year it took 27 days on average to sell vs. 26 days last September. Condominiums averaged...

From Winnipeg Free Press Publication, September 22, 2012.  By Ari Marantz.

Fabulous article from the Winnipeg Free Press by Ari Marantz of Trained Eye Home Inspection.  

With the dry summer weather, many homeowners are experiencing unusual cracking and movement in their walls and other areas of their home. While this may be a somewhat rare occurrence caused by unusually dry soil conditions, it does happen to many homes and I will address the issue accordingly.

Cracks in plaster or drywall in an older home are a very common occurrence in our area due to our expansive clay soils that the homes are built on. This soil will expand and contract with changes in moisture content, which is compounded by the wide temperature swings from summer to winter. Because of this, many homes built on typical concrete footings will move regularly. This settlement is often more pronounced in the first couple of decades after a home is completed, but can happen later due to changing conditions...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; September 6, 2012

WINNIPEG – There was no let up in August as it not only outperformed July but turned in a well above average performance for this time of year. It was only 4% off the most active August on record in 2005. Dollar volume was the highest it has ever been for August with close to $300 million in real estate transactions. 36% of the entire inventory turned over and that was with a healthy dose of new listings coming on the market.

August MLS® unit sales decreased by less than 4% (1,241/1,290) while dollar volume was up almost 1% ($298.7 million/$296.6 million) in comparison to the same month last year. Year-to-date MLS® sales are ahead by 2% (9,387/9,196) while dollar volume has increased 7% ($2.30 billion/$2.14 billion) compared to the same period last year. Listings entered on the MLS® this year are also trending higher than previous years at this point in time.

“We are bucking a national trend which points to moderating...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; August 3, 2012

WINNIPEG- WinnipegREALTORS® noted the 2011 third quarter was quite exceptional so a formidable foe to outperform in 2012. July 2012 proved this point. When it came to the finish lineMLS® sales fell short by less than 2% or 21 sales. Dollar volume was the reverse as July 2012 eked out a narrow victory over July 2011 by a little over $6 million or 2%. Close for sure on both accounts and while neither years’ set all time best sales records for this summer month they both are slightly better than the 10-year running average of 1,223MLS® sales.

Fastest to the finish line in record fashion is the year-to-date dollar volume. Never before has WinnipegREALTORS® in its 109-year history transacted $2 billion inMLS® sales in the first seven months of the year. With five months to go and a cushion of an 8% gain over the same period last year the potential for another annual dollar volume record which will eclipse $3 billion...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; July 6, 2012

WINNIPEG – After a spectacular May when sales went over 1,600 for the second time in WinnipegREALTORS®MLS® sales history, June sales and dollar volume activity settled down in comparison.  Even for previous Junes when sales in the past five years have surpassed 1,500 June 2012 fell back under the 1,500 mark. However a new June dollar volume record was still set eking out a slight gain over last June.

Based on a ten-year running average for June sales, 2012 sales are still very respectable with 3% more sales activity. The best June in 2008 of 1,564 sales is only better than 2012 by less than 5% so there is a lot to be said for consistency in the month of June.

New listings coming onto the market in June showed a 4% improvement over last June with close to 2,000 new listings. The overall inventory of 3,357MLS® listings is up by a 1% margin over 2011 for this time of year. 

JuneMLS® unit sales were down 2% (1...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; Jume 5, 2012

WINNIPEG – Talk about making a statement for May 2012 when you have five sales over a million dollar each propel the monthly MLS® dollar volume level to over $400 million for the first time in WinnipegREALTORS® 109 year history.  Beyond the 5 mega sales, May saw over 1,600 sales in total – making it the second best May and month ever next to May 2007 with MLS® sales of 1,652. Dollar volume in May 2007 was less than $300 million.

A fabulous month indeed and it demonstrates buyers are as active as ever in taking advantage of exceptionally low mortgage rates and one of the most affordable major real estate markets in the country. Some months you are fortunate to get one million dollar plus sale so to have five in one month is atypical and indicative of strength in the luxury end ofWinnipeg’s real estate market. The most expensive of the group went for $1,200,000. It is a newer fully loaded 3200 sq. ft. home...

WinnipegREALTORS® Press Release; May 7, 2012

WINNIPEG – In many respects, this April has to be considered the best April in WinnipegREALTORS® 109-year history as it was only 9 unit sales off the highest April MLS® unit sales recorded in 2008 but is way out in front in dollar volume from any previous April. A rebound was predicted from last April given Manitobans were contending with the flood situation and therefore the spring market did not get on track as it normally does at this time of year. 

Not surprisingly, along with significant sales and dollar volume increases, listings came roaring back too compared to the same month last year with a 17% year-over-year increase. So it is no coincidence sales were ahead by the same percentage as eager buyers took advantage of fresh inventory to choose from. Despite an improvement in listings supply, there is still less than 3 months of residential-detached housing available going forward to meet the demand if there were...